Despite all the bad news, we’ve seen similar price action before

On Monday, the S&P 500 had an outsized selloff, only to recover and shut positive on the day. On Tuesday, the massive cap stock market index had similar price action, however despite a late pump by Fed’s Kashkari, it couldn’t recover and closed the red. And why shouldn’t it's moving lower? On Monday, we had poor China data and a geopolitical nightmare in Afghanistan. Tuesday there have been increased lockdowns in Japan, Australia, Hong Kong, and even a State of Emergency in Palm Beach , Florida, also as weaker US data. There are continued tensions rising with China over Taiwan, and by the way, the Chinese government was given a seat on boards of Byte Dance, owner of TikTok, and Weibo. 


However, despite all the bad news, we’ve seen similar price action before. The S&P 500 has been during a long-term uptrend since the March 2020 pandemic lows. In September and October 2020, price began forming a rising wedge. However, whenever rock bottom trendline of the wedge was tested, the index was bought, and price moved back inside the wedge. Tuesday was no different. Price broke below rock bottom trendline near 4440 and closed just above it. Notice that volume has been declining, as price has been moving higher, since May. The RSI has been moving lower also .


With the above news and economic data, along side the FOMC minutes from the July 2021 meeting, it's going to might be possible for the S&P 500 Index to continue lower on Wednesday. On a 240-minute timeframe, the S&P 500 sold faraway from Monday’s all-time highs of 4482.5 and held horizontal support on Tuesday, near 4417.5. If markets are to still move lower, the primary level of support below Tuesday’s low is that the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from July 19th lows to Monday’s highs near 4387.6, then horizontal support at 4374. This level is vital , because the only levels to carry up the S&P 500 below there are Fib levels at 4358.4 and 4329.1. From there it can fall to 4234.2! Intraday resistance above is at 4453.1, before Mondays highs at 4475, then the highest trendline of the wedge on the daily timeframe near 4525.


With all the negative data so far in the week , the S&P 500 has sold off Monday and Tuesday shortly after the opening. However, it bounced towards the top of every day and is trading back within the long-term ascending wedge. 4374 may be a key level for the index and a drop below may trigger stops!